Fifty years in Wall Street

This period of liquidation and depression left Wall Street and the country at large in 1904 thickly sprinkled with poor rich men, capitalists with a good deal of property, real and personal, including stocks, but all unsalable in the market except at an almost ruinous loss. Their policy is naturally to hold on to what they have left till the tide turns, and if they are strong enough to be able to do this they will doubtless meet with their reward. History repeats itself in Wall Street as well as elsewhere, and with this prospect in view they can cheerfully say, as the old song says, “There’s a good time coming, boys; only wait a little longer.” Meanwhile, those who were active in Wall Street during this eventful period of inflation and speculation must note, more than others, the vast change that has come over sentiment and opinion in Wall Street and everywhere else. Both Wall Street and the outside public have lost the faith that they had in many of the stock-market leaders, the men who were once followed blindly in their schemes of inflation and regarded as omnipotent in their execution. The power and prestige of these leaders, for the present at least, have passed entirely away, and none are so poor as to do them reverence. The devotees of the Street no longer worship the old idols. Wall Street and the public also lost faith in all new ventures and new railway and industrial bond and stock issues, as well as in the good judgment and good faith of the promoters and corporations concerned. The revelations of fraud, chicanery, and excessive capitalization that have been made in the courts and elsewhere, have undeceived even the dullest and most credulous believers in the schemes and schemers that took the country by storm in the days of Wall Street’s wild and pyrotechnical speculation. Out of evil there cometh good, and this great change from blind credulity and inordinate inflation to discriminating distrust and severe contraction has exerted a wholesome effect in paving the way to a sounder, safer, and generally better state of things both in and out of Wall Street. But meanwhile one bad sign is noteworthy. The large corporations, being unable to market new bond issues, are borrowing heavily from banking syndicates at five to six per cent. on notes running from one to three years. There is danger in this, and the way of the borrower on these terms may, like that of the transgressor, be hard. But the end may justify the means; and the nation is still growing as rapidly and as grandly as ever in our history from ocean to ocean. There is nothing to provoke pessimism in the magnificent strides we are making in the march of progress; Wall Street is always sure to reflect this progress and our growth in material prosperity, as well as any periods of depression we may encounter, for it is the great barometer not only of the country and the times, but very largely of the world. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ CHAPTER LXIX. REVIEW OF THE PANIC YEAR, 1903. The year 1903 passed into history with few pleasant memories. To a great number of individuals it was a year of disappointment and loss. To the very few it was a year of golden experience, demonstrating anew that real success only comes from rigid adherence to sound business principles and abstention from illegitimate speculation. Those who remained steadfast to well-established methods of finance and business weathered the storms of the year with little injury; while those who defied economic laws and ventured on the untried highways to success were, later, chiefly engaged in repairing battered fortunes and gathering together their scattered senses. Nineteen hundred and three was chiefly conspicuous as marking the culmination and collapse of the great trust movement which began five or six years ago. The country had fairly gone combination mad, both capital and labor emulating each other in the furious race toward combination and monopoly. All consequences were blindly disregarded, only the advantages of combination receiving any serious attention, and no regard whatever was paid to the workings of these huge combinations. Whoever pointed out their inherent defects, their defiance of natural economic laws, their ineradicable opposition to human nature, their socialistic tendencies, their opposition to individuality, their inability to suppress competition—whoever was bold enough to oppose these tendencies on such grounds was swept aside with contempt and indifference. This phase of the movement, however, was by no means the end of the trust mania. It received an enormous stimulus from Wall Street, where the clever promoter quickly discovered in the increased profits and power of these combines something new to capitalize. These forced profits, together with the premiums paid to original owners for control of good will and for promoters’ commissions, were the basis of an enormous overcapitalization, the new concerns frequently being capitalized at several times their real value. Not less than $6,000,000,000 of these new creations was made within a few short years, forming the basis of a colossal speculation, backed by unequaled financial power and launched upon an unprecedented industrial boom. It is not the purpose of this brief review to cite instances of failure. Fortunately, the losses resulting from inability to unload on the public fell chiefly upon those best able to bear them, the panic being strictly financial and, fortunately, not commercial or industrial. For the original shareholders in these combinations who failed to sell, the losses were chiefly on paper; but they were sufficiently heavy to seriously cripple many rich men whose fortunes had been locked up in these enormously inflated new creations. Syndicate after syndicate was formed to finance these organizations; some made fabulous profits, but others were closed out with heavy losses, bringing the country to the verge of the greatest panic in history. Fortunately, the country’s general prosperity was only slightly impaired by the tremendous strain thus imposed on Wall Street. The storm was finally safely weathered because of the prudence of our bankers and the strength of our national resources, as well as the continued prosperity of the farmer, who once more proved himself the backbone of the nation. These experiences have effectually killed the trust mania, and its revival is exceedingly improbable. Big corporations, it is true, will remain, for the reason that they are the best known means of doing the world’s work; but the era of excessive capitalization of good will, promoters’ fees, monopoly profits, and the delusions of visionary economists is happily at an end. Whether the final days of reckoning for the trusts have been seen or not is a question that must be left until the ultimate test of business adversity is applied, which we sincerely hope is still far distant. At best, the future of the industrials is dubious. Along with, and as a natural sequence of, the trust movement came the labor movement. The power of combination once discovered was as badly misused by labor as by capital; even worse, for the demands of labor were pushed to such extremes of extortion and injustice as to throttle business and arouse popular indignation among those who still preserved some ideas of individual freedom. Next to the trust movement the most potent influence in the business world was the simply phenomenal boom in the iron and steel trade. The world had never seen such rapid development before. This was based principally upon the enormous demands of American railroads, which have been practically reconstructed in order to meet the tremendous rush of traffic which the nation’s growth has imposed upon them. The big car and the big locomotive necessitated heavier rails, new bridges, and new terminal facilities; so that hundreds and hundreds of millions were thus expended, very largely out of current earnings, but in many cases, also, by the creation of new capital issues. It is probable that the heaviest portion of this work has been done, yet much remains to be completed, and railroads will be heavy buyers of steel to continue projected improvements. Another powerful stimulus to the iron trade was the use of the steel frame building for office purposes. This meant a revolution in office buildings, and the business centers of all our large cities are undergoing a process of reconstruction which is far from complete, and was brought to an abrupt halt by the extortionate demands of labor. In addition to these two great sources of demand the uses of iron and steel are steadily extending with the progress of invention, the cheapening of their cost, and the high price of lumber. The iron trade’s pace was too rapid to last, and the reaction came with unexpected severity in the latter half of 1903, precipitated, of course, by the financial reaction, which, along with the labor agitation, discouraged all new enterprise. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ CHAPTER LXX. LEADING WALL STREET EVENTS UP TO THE FALL OF 1907. The natural result of the panic of 1903, and the long period of depression in Wall Street, was that an unprecedentedly large surplus reserve was accumulated by the New York banks in 1904, reaching its maximum in August. This was still further swelled in 1905, when speculation for a rise again assumed formidable proportions, and new high records were made in the stock market. Both bank loans and deposits reached a magnitude never before known, and the activity on the Stock Exchange, combined with that in trade, and land, mining, and other speculations outside of Wall Street, caused the clearing house exchanges to greatly exceed those of any previous year. Our foreign imports also increased till they made new high records, although our exports failed to keep pace with them. This large import trade reflected both the rising fortunes of the rich, who had suffered severely during the depression of 1903, and the general prosperity. Our imports are the barometer of the times. When these are good, they are large; but in bad times they shrink enormously, for a large percentage of them represent luxuries, and we are a luxury-loving people, and, in comparison with Europeans, our manner of living is expensive, not to say extravagant. Before the end of 1905 the banks of the rest of the country followed those of New York in reporting deposits and loans larger than ever before, whereas in the early part of it their only high record was in the amount of their cash reserves. This showed the great demand for loans and discounts to meet the requirements of the rapidly increasing volume of trade and speculation. The amount of money available for loans was largely reduced in the early part of 1905 by our heavy exports of gold. But it was subsequently increased by the issue, up to December 1st, of sixty millions in National Bank note circulation, which was so much fuel added to the fire of speculation, not, however, in Wall Street, as much as in the interior, where there was a rage for new enterprises of all kinds, mostly speculative. Everyone with money enough to make a venture seemed to be seeking a short cut to wealth. This inland speculation and business activity, particularly in the West and South, caused the exchanges or clearings of the banks all over the country, except in New York, which was comparatively dull, to reach larger totals than ever before. Our iron production and foreign imports, at the same time, made new high records.