Memoirs of the Duchesse de Dino (Afterwards Duchesse de Talleyrand et de Sagan), 1836-1840
abroad which Guizot's Cabinet will have to confront is likely to be a
crushing burden. Honourable men do not pardon Thiers for making this
humiliation inevitable, and in three months no one will pardon Guizot
for yielding to it. In my opinion he will have to give way in a short
time, but if he performs the double service of bringing us through a
great difficulty without increasing it and of paving the way for a new
Conservative majority he will have done a good deal. I do not despair,
and for my part will certainly help him. He left me and went on to
open conciliatory measures with M. Molé.
"The immediate cause of Thiers' rupture with the King is as follows:
In the speech Thiers demanded further measures, that is, an additional
hundred and fifty thousand men--making six hundred and fifty thousand
in all, the mobilisation of the National Guards, camps upon the Rhine
and the Alps, in short, war. The King tried to compromise by saying
that his Ministers would explain what they had done and what they
intended to do. Thiers refused; it seems as though there was no
sincerity on either side. Thiers felt that his position was untenable:
the Left was trembling, the Conservatives would venture anything in
their fright, and his own foolishness will not bear discussion. The
King on his side was bold enough to regard his attempted assassination
by Darmès as a possible starting-point from which to turn the struggle
against himself and overthrow his Cardinal de Retz, while he ran no
risk for his power, but a very great deal of risk for his life.
"The Conservative party thus seems to be reorganised by the return of
the large majority of the Doctrinaires and the probable support of the
Left Centres, who are in terror, but the Doctrinaire party is divided;
M. Duvergier de Hauranne and M. Piscatory follow M. de Rémusat and M.
Jaubert from the Left; M. Broglie is divided between the two camps; M.
Thiers continues to rely upon him, and flatters himself that he has
been strongly defended by him in the Chamber of Peers; M. Guizot, on
the other hand, calculates that he will accept the London Embassy; to
this he attaches great importance, although M. de Broglie will not be
able to lend him all the strength of which he will deprive M. Thiers
by a long way; however, he will not weaken him, and that is something.
Failing M. Thiers, Madames de Barante and de Sainte-Aulaire will fight
for London. There is no doubt that M. de la Redorte will be retired,
as he has cut a poor figure in the Peninsula. There will be many
changes in the Diplomatic Body. I know that I have been thought of for
an embassy, but I have not yet considered my reply. M. Guizot has
gained nothing from London; something may be obtained from Lord
Melbourne, but nothing from Lord Palmerston, and it is not certain
that Europe is less inclined to the latter than to the former. The
condition of the Comte de Paris still causes alarm. Chomel, to whom I
have spoken, but he is rather a pessimist, has no hope except that the
poor young Prince may live long enough to spare the Duchesse d'Orléans
a great grief during her confinement."
_Rochecotte, November 8, 1840._--M. d'Entraigues, our Prefect, who has
been here since the evening of the day before yesterday, received
yesterday by a courier a telegram sent to him at Tours with news of
the nomination of the President, the Vice-President and the Committee
of the Chamber of Deputies. The nominations in general are, thank
heaven, favourable to the Cabinet and supported by a good majority.
This beginning is a trifle consoling. If fear inspires wisdom, so much
the better.
I have a letter from the Duc de Noailles, who tells me that there is
no truth in the rumour that his cousin M. Maurice is to enter the
Church. People are indeed wonderfully clever in inventing and
spreading stories and providing them with so many details as to make
one believe what is utterly unfounded. The Duc de Noailles also says:
"The royal session is said to have been a most mournful ceremony;[138]
on the one side was much outcry of obvious meaning, while on the Left
there was menacing silence; in the middle was the King shedding tears
at a certain passage in his speech. The speech was wanting in dignity,
and a pacific attitude should be more dignified; it was drawn up by
Guizot. The desire for peace was too obvious, and it was not a
success. The Ministry are sure of a majority for some time, but as the
fear of war dies away they will lose it. Syria has been given up as a
bad job by the Government. If the Pasha submits, all will be over; if
he resists and is attacked in Egypt it is difficult to say how an
explosion will be avoided here. Thiers said to Guizot on his arrival:
'Now it is your turn. There are only two men in France, yourself and
I; I am the Minister of the revolution, you of the Conservative
movement; if one is not in power the other must be. We cannot act in
concert, but we can live upon good terms. I shall put no obstacle in
your way, and make no attempt to inconvenience you.' None the less he
is already intriguing in the Chamber, and an agitation will be raised
to support him."
[138] The opening session of the Chamber of Deputies.
_Rochecotte, November 12, 1840._--The Abbé Dupanloup arrived here
yesterday to consecrate my chapel. The ceremony is to take place
immediately. Yesterday's post brought news of the confinement of the
Duchesse d'Orléans. I am delighted to hear of the birth of a second
son.[139] Madame de Lieven writes that she is somewhat dissatisfied
with the beginning which the new Ministry has made.
[139] The Duc de Chartres.
_Rochecotte, November 14, 1840._--I had wished the first mass said in
my chapel to be for the repose of the soul of M. de Talleyrand, but an
inaugural mass cannot be one of mourning. At the ceremony of the day
before yesterday, therefore, colours were worn in honour of St.
Martin; yesterday's mass was for the dear departed. The altar is
exactly where his bed used to stand in the room which has been
replaced by the chapel; the coincidence affected me deeply.
_Rochecotte, November 17, 1840._--M. de Salvandy, who has most
obligingly undertaken to send me a little weekly bulletin, tells me
that the Diplomatic Body at Paris was almost as keenly excited by the
last note from Lord Palmerston as the Chamber itself.[140]
[140] Lord Palmerston was unwilling to make any concessions.
It seems that Count Apponyi has written everywhere pointing out the
danger of urging France to revolution and to war when she is
attempting to throw off the yoke of anarchy. Lord Granville and Herr
von Bülow disavow the acts of Lord Palmerston. If he really wished to
drive France to extremities, it may be believed that neither Austria
nor Prussia would support him. Even Russia seems to have moderated her
language.
My son-in-law writes me from Paris on the 15th: "The state of affairs
here seems to me very confused. The transition from revolutionary
provocation to a demeanour of humility can only be effected amid
uproar in order to put shame out of countenance. To this end everybody
is working. There is a general cry for peace and for the support of
the former Ministry, and a general outcry against the cowardice and
degradation of the supreme power, though no one can say exactly what
should have been done. These indeterminate attacks never produce a
really embarrassing situation, and as they make an uproar without
doing any harm, the men against whom they are ineffectually directed
obtain the credit of success. It thus seems generally admitted that
the Ministry will gain a majority. M. Guizot, for instance, was saying
the day before yesterday in his _salon_, with the heroic air
characteristic of General Guizot: 'Gentlemen, we have just begun the
campaign; the war will be long and severe, but I hope that we shall
gain the victory.' Though the Chamber desires peace at any price, it
is not compliant. The greater its anxiety, the louder its outcries,
which will only end with its unregretted fall. The Address, which is
to be drawn up, people say, by M. Passy or M. de Salvandy, will be
very bellicose, so much so as to embarrass the Government, although it
had been decided to create as little trouble as possible on this
point.
"You will have read the answer of Lord Palmerston to the memorandum of
October 8. It is an important matter. His disdain for us is obvious,
and is not even disguised by forms or ceremonies. It seems, moreover,
that this feeling towards us has grown remarkably of late. None the
less the note has caused much embarrassment to M. Guizot, who had told
everybody that since his entry upon office the situation in England
had entirely changed and that Lord Palmerston was an altered
character. He summed up his views in these words: 'I have peace in my
pocket.' This is how he explained Lord Palmerston's note when he was
talking at the house of the President of the Chamber[141] two days
ago: 'Lord Palmerston has a theological mind; he will let no
objection pass without an answer, so that this note means nothing;
it is merely a question of principle.' M. Dubois, of the
Loire-Inférieure, who is a clever man, and a strong supporter of the
new Ministry, then took M. Guizot aside and told him that he would be
making a great mistake if he repeated that observation in the Chamber.
M. Guizot merely answered by repeating his statement, with which he
was so delighted that he caused it to be inserted that evening in his
own newspaper, _Le Messager_, in the form of a note at the foot of the
memorandum, merely suppressing the term 'theological.' At the same
time the incident has caused some stir, which has not yet died away,
and would make M. Guizot cut a ridiculous figure if things seemed what
they are in this country. The Ministry proposes to make peace, and
everybody thinks that it will be successful. After that it will
perish, for no obvious reason, in a hurricane; this also seems to be
generally believed. Then M. Molé, who now remains in isolation, will
come to power. He will probably be welcomed by every one, not because
he is any more popular in the Chamber than he used to be, but because
every one's energy is exhausted, while the King remains master. The
matter will depend upon the King, who is ill-disposed to M. Molé at
this moment, and uttered a remark concerning him which others
attribute to M. Guizot, but which is too good to come from more than
one source: 'M. Molé is an excellent looker-on, but is a bad actor.' I
have an idea that the remark is mine, and that some one stole it from
me five years ago.
[141] M. Sauzet.
"The Syrian campaign is decidedly favourable to the allies. The
English have displayed much energy. They are inducing the Turks to
strike hard, and everything is yielding before them; the force of
Ibrahim was a myth. At every moment we are expecting the news of the
capture of Saint-Jean d'Acre, which will be an important success both
here and there. The saddest part of it is that there is no certainty
concerning the possible safety of Egypt. Already rumours are present
of a probable revolt at Alexandria, of the assassination of the Pasha
by knife or poison; while you have seen that Lord Palmerston, with his
theological mind, no longer speaks of the deposition of the Pasha as
he did three weeks ago. There is no certainty that we shall not yield
upon that point here, and it would be a tremendous concession.
"So much for the present. I now turn to the past. Thiers has shrunk in
everybody's eyes: his timidity has been invariably as great as his
imprudence and his superficiality. He dismissed the French Consul at
Beyrout because he wished to serve the Pasha in Syria by calming the
revolt, and it has never been possible to induce him to send reliable